Brunei Darussalam Central Bank (BDCB) recently published Brunei Darussalam’s Business Sentiment Index (BSI) for the month of April 2022.
The index is based on surveys conducted on more than 600 micro, small, medium and large-sized businesses from the 11 economic sectors in Brunei Darussalam, across all districts.
The monthly index is designed to measure the level of business confidence/sentiment in the country and cover various aspects including current and future business conditions; investments; employment of workers; as well as costs of running the businesses.
Therefore, BSI serves as a leading macroeconomic indicator with its forward-looking element.
The BSI and sub-indices can be interpreted as below:
| BSI Value | Â Interpretation |
| Above 50 | Expansion / Optimism compared to the previous month |
| 50 | Similar/ / No change compared to the previous month |
| Below 50 | Contraction / Less optimism compared to the previous month |
Within the BSI, there are nine sub-indices. The Current Business Conditions sub-index, which is the main headline index for the BSI, was 50.3 in April 2022.
This was the seventh expansion since October 2021. Despite some businesses expecting April 2022 to be a slower month due to Ramadhan, there were generally optimistic business conditions during the month as the economy continues to gradually recover from the third wave of COVID-19.
Most businesses expected improved demand and productivity with fewer employees being issued with quarantine orders; more projects and activities; as well as improved sales such as new car sales and flight ticket sales following the reopening of borders on 1 April 2022.
The index for the one month (1M) ahead Business Conditions was 50.4, indicating businesses’ optimism about a possible increase in sales with promotions to be offered during the upcoming Hari Raya Aidilfitri in May 2022, as well as further easing of restrictions.
The Investment sub-index was 49.9 for the current month, 50.4 for 1M ahead and 50.3 for three months (3M) ahead.
This indicates that businesses are generally expected to reduce investment activities and inventory in April 2022 compared to the previous month since they had already increased their investment activities in the first quarter of the year.
Nevertheless, many businesses have plans to increase their investment expenditures in the coming months including the opening of new branches/outlets; carrying out renovations and upgrading of business premises; and purchasing and replacing machinery and equipment.
The Employment sub-index was 50.1 for the current month, and 50.1 for 1M ahead, indicating that most businesses expected to hire more employees in April 2022 and will continue to hire in the next month.
Overall, businesses were still facing manpower challenges mainly due to the lengthy process of on-boarding foreign workers as well as the existing skills mismatch issue in the labour market. Nonetheless, businesses are expecting to continue their recruitment activities to meet manpower shortage issues, especially as their foreign employees have left or are leaving to return to their home countries following the expiry of their work permits.
The Costs sub-index was 50.3 for the current month and 50.0 for 1M ahead, indicating that businesses are expected to continue to face increased costs of running their businesses in April 2022.
A similar situation was also expected for the month of May 2022. Some businesses planned to spend on more marketing activities in April 2022, as well as on wages and commissions for employees as a pick-up in sales was expected.
Businesses have been experiencing rising costs in the past few months, especially on logistics; transportation; raw materials; food; and oil. Businesses generally expected the upward trend in prices to continue in the near term.
| BSI AprII 2022 | |
| Current Business Conditions | 50.3 |
| 1M Ahead Business Conditions | 50.4 |
| Current Investment | 49.9 |
| 1M Ahead Investment | 50.4 |
| 3M Ahead Investment | 50.3 |
| Current Employment | 50.1 |
| 1M Ahead Employment | 50.1 |
| Current Costs | 50.3 |
| 1M Ahead Costs | 50.0 |
In terms of economic sectors, there was an improvement compared to March 2022 with 6 out of 11 sectors recording optimism.
The largest expansion was led by Transport and Communications, likely on expectations of more travel activity with the easing of border restrictions.
This is followed by expectations of higher sales in the Wholesale & Retail Trade sector, as well as better performance in the Oil and Gas Related Sector.
On the other hand, 3 sectors namely Construction; Agriculture, Forestry, Fisheries & Livestock; and Other Private Services showed pessimism in April 2022 with indices below the threshold of 50.
The reasons cited included a seasonal slowdown due to the month of Ramadhan; fewer projects; and on-going manpower shortages. Meanwhile, Manufacturing and Real Estate & Ownership of Dwellings reported similar current business conditions in April 2022 compared to March 2022.
| Current Business Conditions April 2022 by Sector | |
| Oil & Gas Related | 50.3 |
| Manufacturing | 50.0 |
| Construction | 49.7 |
| Wholesale & Retail Trade | 50.4 |
| Transport & Communication | 50.6 |
| Agriculture, Forestry, Fisheries & Livestock | 50.6 |
| Finance & Insurance | 49.9 |
| Real Estate & Ownership of Dwellings | 50.3 |
| Hotels & Restaurants | 50.2 |
| Health & Education | 50.1 |
| Other Private Services | 49.9 |
In terms of business size, overall sentiment had improved in April 2022 compared to the previous month. Micro and large-sized businesses have reported expansions as their businesses were expected to continue to benefit from the improved COVID-19 situation in Brunei Darussalam, as well as better sales figures. Meanwhile, small and medium-sized businesses reported contractions due to the slowing down of activities during Ramadhan and other factors such as logistics and manpower challenges.
The time-series charts for the BSI and its sub-indices since August 2020 can be found in ANNEX 1. For more information on BSI, members of the public may refer to the technical notes on the methodology and statistics in the BDCB website at www.bdcb.gov.bn and follow updates on the BSI through future press releases and BDCB’s Instagram account @centralbank.brunei.
This article was first published on 28 May 2022 in our Weekly Epaper issue 195 |
THE BRUNEIAN | BANDAR SERI BEGAWAN
